Will anti-Hillary Democrats vote for Trump

The Democrats are hoping for the anti-Trump effect


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The political scientist Schmidt, however, doubts that such attacks can influence the mood among Trump's supporters - on the contrary. "For her, celebrities from Hollywood belong to the rich, intellectual establishment and thus hardly differ from the politicians in Washington," says the political expert. Accordingly, they would have little credibility with its voters.

The more moderate Republican members, on the other hand, who are not for Trump, are in a dilemma. Because there is hardly an alternative for them if Trump should actually be nominated. Schmidt believes it is out of the question that a large number of Republicans could vote for Clinton instead of Trump. For years the party had demonized Clinton, "the psychological hurdle is simply too big". It is easier for moderate Republicans to vote for an independent third candidate. "Most likely, however, they will stay home confused and heartbroken."

The Democrats hope that the anti-Trump movement will play into their hands and create an enthusiasm, especially among young voters, that Clinton will not generate on its own. The slogan to prevent Trump could thus become their greatest political asset. However, Schmidt doubts that the public activism of Trump opponents could actually be reflected in the voter turnout - and points as an example to the success that the AfD had in Germany despite all the counter-demonstrations. "Everyone assumes that voter turnout will be huge in November, but maybe it will be the other way around," said the political scientist.

There is also another problem for the anti-Trump movement. "The people who are currently taking to the streets against Trump are the same people who protested against Wall Street," said Schmidt. However, they reject Clinton with the same passion as the rumbling billionaire who incites against women and all minorities. For many of them it is inconceivable to vote for Clinton because she has received large donations from Wall Street. "You choose either radically or not at all." For the political scientist, the anti-Trump movement could therefore be heading for a dilemma if Clinton is nominated.

It is just not enough to be against someone, says Helmut Norporth, political scientist at Stony Brook University in New York. "You also need to have someone to support." The expert believes a completely different outcome is possible. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump would differ little from one another when it came to questions of globalization and trade. Should Sanders not stand for election, Norpoth said, "some of his supporters could even switch to Trump."